jammycakes (C16),
Total contamination, Paul. Total contamination.
We’re getting there. Just wait. My first response was simply to say that it cannot reasonably all be written off to laboratory contamination. Some (e.g. RonSewell in C17) are not ready to concede that yet:
I would maintain the laboratory contamination, or more broadly, overall laboratory and instrument limitations, could in itself plausibly account for end results indicating 14C.The fact that two of the experts most acquainted with the data find laboratory contamination and instrument background not an adequate explanation for all the C-14 in coal doesn’t seem to matter to him. But whatever.
Now I would make a point that may help T_aquaticus (C18). The proper way to discuss contamination is by citing pMC, percent modern carbon, or its relative fMC or fraction modern carbon. which is just pMC/100%. First, pMC is closer to what is actually measured, which is the ratio of carbon-14 to ordinary carbon, and if one compares it to a reliable modern sample, the pMC is the measured ratio of the C-14 concentration of the two samples, converted to percentage. Radiocarbon years involves plugging another factor in, and makes the process of comparison less intuitive (quick: what level of contamination will give one 50,000 radiocarbon years?), whereas pMC is much more straightforward. To get 0.1 pMC in a specimen which would otherwise be at infinite age, one must contaminate it with 1 part in a thousand of modern carbon. It is really that straightforward.
So how much contamination must we have either underground, in transit to the laboratory, or as carbon-14 produced by neutrons, to explain what we see without recourse to residual carbon? Baumgardner’s data suggests an excess of 0.10 ± 0.03 pMC for their sample with the least radiocarbon, and 0.46 ± 0.03 pMC for the sample with the most radiocarbon. All these amounts are with an assumed background of 0.077 pMC already subtracted out. So the amount of carbon-14 to be explained is roughly 0.1-0.46 pMC. That is over 1 part in a thousand, which means that if one has a 1 kg sample, one must contaminate it with at least 1 g of modern carbon (some of the samples were obtained in 180 kg quantities).
We may differ over whether that is probable or not. But surely there should be experiments that could make that distinction. We should be able to test coal from different sites in a mine, more or less compact, with greater or lesser bacterial populations, with greater or lesser amounts of fungal elements, and perhaps even test the fungal elements themselves for radiocarbon. It does seem that with the appropriate tests, we could assess the magnitude of in situ contamination and assess how adequate an explanation it was for the carbon-14 found in coal, over and above the contamination that is found in the laboratory. Maybe it is adequate, maybe not. That’s the fun part of science—testing one’s hypotheses.
I could argue that this massive amount of contamination with modern carbon is unlikely. In a coal seam 1 m x 1 km x 1 km (not a particularly massive seam), we have perhaps 5 x 10^5 metric tons of carbon (assuming some water and a density of carbon of <1, so that the concentration of carbon in coal is assumed to be 0.5 g/cm^3). The contamination required is then 500 metric tons, over, say, 5000 years, or close to 1 half-life, or 100 kg/year.
This is, of course, assuming that the efficiency of extraction of modern carbon from the air or water, or whatever vehicle is carrying the carbon, is close to 100%. If it is more like 50%, the requirement doubles. If it is more like 1%, we need 100 times as much as we thought. At that rate, we would replace the entire coalfield in 50,000 years. In fact, even in the best case scenario, we would replace the coal every half a million years. It’s a wonder we have any coal left.
Of course, that assumes that the coal is being evenly replaced. It would seem that this assumption could be challenged. How does one replace coal at the same rate everywhere in an entire seam? So it would be helpful to take coal from various areas, perhaps more or less fractured, or closer or farther from an underground stream, and see whether the C-14 content varies. If it does, we have evidence for underground contamination. If it does not (or does not do so significantly), we have evidence that underground contamination is not the whole story.
Perhaps considerations such as these led Harry Gove, reportedly, to opt for the hypothesis that carbon-14 was being made by neutrons underground. We can discuss that hypothesis next.
Mr_Wilford (C19),
Grootes’ data form the basis for the best argument against carbon-14 being in coal that I know. It is not clear how reproducible his data were, and the method has since been abandoned, but the numbers he got were 0.0072±0.0096 pMC, and 0.0062±0.0038 pMC. If those two results are combined statistically, they give 0.0064±0.0035 pMC, which is not statistically different from zero.
It would be fair to report this as <0.0134 pMC, or >71,600 uncalibrated radiocarbon years.
However, I would be a little more cautious about your other data. If we look at the “raw” data, we see something strange. Some of the data on table 5 give negative pMC, which is not supposed to happen with unfiltered data. If we read the protocols more carefully, we find that a correction has been indeed applied. For the Oxford samples, “First, an AMS blank correction is applied to all samples measured on the accelerator based on measurements of gas derived from pure anthracite.“ (There are two more corrections) For the SUERC samples,
The 14C/13C ratios of the graphitized samples were measured on the SUERC single-stage accelerator mass spectrometer (Freeman et al. 2010; Naysmith et al. 2010) and 14C ages calculated using the background subtraction method (using an average background value of Fm = 0.0034, which was based on 6 targets prepared from our background bone sample). The bone background sample (Bos primigenis) derives from a placer mine site near Fairbanks, Alaska, and is at least Marine Isotope Stage 5 in age.
So what is really being said is that for most specimens, the radiocarbon measurements match, to within statistical error, those from anthracite coal or other ancient bone specimens. If one takes the intrinsic radiocarbon of the reference anthracite or bone specimens as zero, then subtracting out their measured radiocarbon content makes sense. But if the question is whether there is radiocarbon on the reference specimens, the mathematical procedure is of no help. Don’t forget that according to Lowe (1989), radiocarbon in coal is rather ubiquitous. And there are now several reports of radiocarbon found in old mammoth bone and even dinosaur bone. So if the question is whether the bones in the article you cited contain radiocarbon, the data that were published do not help answer that question. More specifically designed experiments would be of more help.
RonSewell (C20),
That video is unbelievable. Some parts are reasonably accurate, but others, not so much. Perhaps the best example of unreliability is her video clip of Maddie at Science Side Up, apparently approving of Maddie’s analysis. Maddie is discussing radiocarbon in geologically old fossils, and at 22:02 of the (Gutsick Gibbon) video, Maddie says,
… but what’s much more damning here is the way that those carbon-14 ratios are measured. If you guys wondered what I did with my weekend, it was reading papers on this. Okay, so how do y’all think, how do y’all think that radiocarbon, carbon-14 is measured in these samples? You think it was Mass Spec? You think they used, they actually identified number of atoms? ‘Cause that’s what I thought when I took the dear doctor here at his word. That is not how they measure it, team. That is not how they measure it. The way they measure it is by the radiation. So they measure the beta particles coming off, right. They measure, they measure how much beta radiation is being emitted by the sample.This appears to be a clear denial that AMS dates are used in the paper that Snelling references.
I am familiar with the underlying papers, both the Baumgardner paper and the other papers that formed the basis for the graph that is being displayed in the video at this point. Baumgardner’s data was definitely from a facility that used AMS, as is stated in the paper (“The 14C analysis at the AMS laboratory we selected …“—p.606), and the very first reference in the table was
Aerts-Bijma, A. T., H. A. J. Meijer, and J. van der Plicht, AMS sample handling in Groningen, Nuclear Instruments and Methods in Physics Research B, 123, 221–225, 1997. [bold added]
The reference is available on Google Scholar, if anyone wants to check it out. The title of the next reference was “14C dating with the Gif-sur-Yvette Tandetron accelerator: status report”. Maddie’s weekend research leaves something to be desired, as does the research of Gutsick Gibbon. I hope we can give that video a rest.