Some Comments from YouTube Watchers of the Tour-Farina Debate

That’s a good point. However this plays right in Tour’s hand and his other big point claiming we are clueless about the origin of life. It is unclear if timescales and large volumes of materials will make the start of life easier or more difficult (the true answer is probably a bit of both), and I think his replies to Farina (who claims these things make it easier) are more along the lines of “we don’t know” or “it certainly seems more difficult in this case.”

If this is the case, then Tour’s other claim that OOL research is being done wrong (I.e. trying to create life in a pristine lab environment ) would also be supported. The whole way of trying to build life from Enantiomerically Pure building blocks would end up making the problem more difficult than it needs to be - instead maybe a better solution would maybe be simulating or combining mixtures of diverse compounds available in an early earth and seeing what happens naturally rather than trying to artificially stimulate the process.

It’s a ludicrously weak straw man, conflating science with technology.

By testing hypotheses. Science, not technology.

Does Tour address research like this in any way whatsoever?
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(12)01438-9

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Scientists differ with each other, as do philosophers. But whereas observations eventually decide scientist’s contentions over nature, philosophers can just differ forever, albeit with ever more precise definitions.

I doubt it is possible to quantify the probability of a naturalist explanation without first actually determining the naturalist explanation, which would then render the probability moot. So there is no probability cutoff.

Theory in the scientific sense can only come from science by definition. Theory in the sense of anything goes can come from naval gazing, substance abuse, campfire chatter, cult leaders, or anywhere.

Apart from empirical data, “best” is an entirely subjective adjective.

Not necessarily. “Fine tuning”, when considered both necessary and sufficient, can be both.

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I don’t claim to be an OOL research expert, but AFAIK OOL research isn’t being done the way Tour says it’s being done wrong, and has sometimes been done that better way.

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I think these questions betray a double standard. Far more people have been trying to demonstrate the existence of even one single supernatural being or occurrence for far, far longer than abiogenesis research has been carried out, and they have failed completely. So it seems to me it is the idea of supernatural phenomena operating in our world that needs to be discarded if we are to make progress in understanding the world. Fortunately, for the most part this has already happened.

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Sure. But ultimately it’s not that we did it anyway, it’s that life originated by some unknown natural process. One can in principle infer that this has occurred without being able to replicate it in the lab.

We can’t re-evolve some extant species from some distant ancestor, and yet we can still infer this has actually occurred.

There is no such point of course, as such a cut-off would be completely arbitrary. There isn’t any sort of objective rule that says when the probability gets below X, natural explanations are assumed to be false and then we just make up a supernatural one instead.

If you’re going to discriminate among hypotheses on the basis of their relative probabilities, you’re going to need at least two numbers so you can show that X < Y. You can’t just say some natural explanation has a low probability, so something with an unknown probability must be true instead.

X is small and Y is unknown so Y, isn’t a valid logical inference.

You need some way of estimating the probabilities of both.

Are they even theories if they can’t be tested scientifically?

When it makes testable predictions that can be rationally evaluated in terms probabilities, explanatory power, modesty(simplicity, parsimony), and scope.

There isn’t some rule in science that says you can’t posit a supernatural hypothesis. But you need some sort of way to test it so it isn’t an entirely imaginary “just-so” story. There must be a way for the data to disagree with the hypothesis, otherwise it’s entirely ad-hoc “just so” story telling.

Possibly. That depends on the empirical facts and the nature of the claim of course.

If you have a claim that a supernatural cause made X happen, and yet you have evidence that X is is consistent with the expectations of some natural process, then I’d say that undermines the supernatural explanation. You’d have to assess that on a case-by-case basis.

Yeah I just don’t think science actually is limited to only “natural” explanations. It is limited to testable explanations. You can’t just tell ad-hoc stories with zero predictive power. That’s literally just storytelling.
If what you want is some way of discriminating among hypotheses, you’re going to have to find some ways of estimating their relative probabilities. If you can’t calculate the probability of a supernatural explanation at all, then you have no basis for preferring it over some natural explanation just because that natural explanation might have a low probability. That would, again, be completely arbitrary.

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This commits a category error (that the supernatural would need to be demonstrated in a “scientific” way to be shown to be true) and appears to beg the question in that it presupposes metaphysical naturalism is true (but the latter may be my interpretation of your claim). The fact is there are people who were skeptical and claimed they had supernatural experiences and not all of these have been shown to be false as you imply.

An explanation for why the natural world is rationally and mathematical understandable would itself be a supernatural explanation by necessity. Now we can say that trying to speculate about this is useless, but that doesn’t mean such an explanation isn’t true or doesn’t exist.

Why? For instance, Is the ideal gas law a supernatural explanation, by necessity or otherwise? Does having a description of gas behavior indicate some sort of mystical impetus which animates the gas? How should gas behave if there were no supernatural order?

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How would you show a supernatural explanation to be true? It seems to me either you have to show it follows by logical necessity from something already known to be true without some question-begging premise(obviously if you include such a premise, the person who does not buy in to it will not agree you have shown X to be true), or you have to do some sort of empirical scientific testing where you compare the fit of different models or hypotheses to data.

Sure, but we don’t just accept such statements as indicating truth on their say-so. There are people (in the news lately, too) who claim aliens have visited Earth and that the US government has tech from an advanced extraterrestrial intelligence. That’s not even a supernatural claim and yet I don’t believe that either.

No, why would it? I could say it is due to chance. You might not buy that, and I can’t prove it is, but that is one sort of explanation that isn’t supernatural. I could also say that it couldn’t be otherwise. The world is such because it is necessary.

Again, I can’t prove that, but that doesn’t mean it’s supernatural. Unless you mean to imply, by definition, the supernatural means that which cannot be proven or tested in anyway. But then one wonders what justification one could ever have for accepting it in the first place if that is a defining attribute.

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No, it does not, because the context you chose, and obviously don’t understand, is the scientific one.

Wrong. I am pointing out the obvious fact that it has not been demonstrated by any means, scientific or otherwise.

You again misunderstand: I am not saying they have been shown to be false. I am saying that, regardless of what any individual might personally believe, none of them have been shown to be true. Not one, out of countless millions of claims of supernatural occurrences. Doesn’t that give you pause? It should.

And, here again, you are showing a double standard. If merely believing in the supernatural should be sufficient to consider it a viable explanation, then there are also lots of people who believe in natural abiogenesis.

No. It might be metaphysical. But that is a very different thing from supernatural. And, even so, it could still be a natural explanation, pertaining to how our particular nervous system has evolved to function in a particular world.

However, unless the answer can be determined thru the scientific method, then it will most likely never be determined at all. If we do answer the question thru anything other than the scientific method (which I define as applying reasoning to empirical observations with the assumption that naturalism is true) then that would the first time this has happened in human history. Not good odds.

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We have no evidence that the natural world is rationally and mathematically understandable.

All that we can really say, is that the rationally and mathematically understandable aspect of the natural world are rationally and mathematically understandable. And that’s just a trivial truism.

We don’t know or understand anything about those aspects of nature that are not rationally and mathematically understandable.

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If I might add, there is also the problem of an assumed counter factual that is not even defined. How would a world that is NOT rationally and mathematical understandable (to any degree whatsoever) even look like? Is such a concept even coherent or possible? Until then, this statement appears to be completely tautological. Any hypothetical world can be described as being itself (P=P). What would a situation even be where P≠P?

Furthermore, assuming the premise is right: A rationally and mathematical understandable world would necessitate an external world in order for there to be an explanation of that internal world; then what about THAT external world? Is that world also rationally and/or mathematical understandable? If not, then how can it even provide an explanation if it is not understandable? If yes, then the same premise would imply that a higher external-external (super-duper-natural) world is necessary to explain the rationally and mathematical understandable external (supernatural) world.

Ad infinitum

Or, if the rational and mathematical understandable external world can be explained without necessitating a higher external world to avoid an infinite regress, this would falsify the original premise. Alternatively, if the premise ONLY applies to the ‘natural’ world, but not to the ‘supernatural’ world, then (unless justified) this argument is guilty of special pleading.

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I think you may be out of touch with the literature on this. In the salient sense, we certainly see examples of such worlds in virtual worlds.

The fact that all virtual worlds we know of are quickly distinguishable from our shared reality in the physical world is because, in part, the real world exhibits far greater coherences across so many scales to such fine-grained detail. Nothing like this is achieved in any virtual worlds we observe.

So these virtual worlds definitely satisfy P=P, but they don’t exhibit the fine-grained, multi-scale, coherence of our universe. That’s the rub.

And there are certainly even larger classes of worlds that are strictly possible, as long we don’t rule them out be assuming from the get go they don’t exist (and thereby begging the question).

What on Earth are you talking about?

Are there simulations of worlds that are not rationally or mathematically understandable? What computer hardware do they run on that can simulate a lack of rational or mathematical coherence?

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I have no idea how you can say that such a world cannot be mathematically understandable? Any virtual world generated has to be describable by the very math of the program that underpins that simulated world.

This is completely beside the point. We aren’t talking about how detailed a world is or how many scales it has. The point was whether a world is - quote - “rationally and mathematical understandable”. A world can be extremely simple with few details and scales, yet it can be understandable. It would arguably be much easier to understand it if it was very simple.

Furthermore, even the assumption of coherence across many scales is questionable. The phenomenology changes drastically at many scales and phases. A good example is quantum phenomena, which are counterintuitive because they rarely have an effect at the familiar macroscopic scale. The described process where the quantum effects are ‘rubbed’ out and the rules of ‘classical physics’ emerges is called ‘Quantum Decoherence’, which is why Schrödinger’s cat is never in a superposition of being both alive and dead at the same time. Emergence of new phenomena with different quantitative and qualitative properties is why we have different fields of science. One could argue that everything ultimately boils down to physics. However, even if we had a physics theory of everything, it would be extremely difficult and if not impossible to use it in practice for…well…everything else, such as describing biological or social phenomena.

But… again… this is irrelevant to the original point.

Yes, the world we live in is unique. So is every hypothetical world. Again, I don’t see why this is relevant to the point that was made.

No, the ‘rub’ was whether the world is “rationally and mathematical understandable”.

Two possible answers:

1st: If you are only referring to worlds that are “rationally and mathematically understandable”, then I don’t disagree. I never assumed that these don’t exist from the get go (Straw man), and it’s not relevant to my point (Red Herring).

2st: If you are referring to worlds that are not understandable… One of the points I was making was asking whether it is even possible for a world to be NOT “rationally and mathematically understandable”? Is there world where P≠P? Just asserting that these “certainly” are possible “as long as we don’t rule them out” is simply begging the question.

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Back to the ridiculous idea that staged debates are a good way to communicate science to the public, this is a great article that includes a shout-out to ID:

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First of all, the article Mercer cites had a prejudice built into the title. “Antivaccine cranks” is frequently used in a sweeping way to include not only people who groundlessly oppose all vaccinations of any kind, but a number of thoughtful and educated people who have expressed concern about certain vaccines without attacking vaccination in general. So yes, it can be a waste of time to debate “vaccine cranks,” if by that is meant a talk-show host who knows nothing about medicine, but it doesn’t follow that no debate about vaccines could be constructive or educational to the public.

Some European countries have recently walked back from mass vaccination of younger people for COVID, not because of “crank” theories, but because their own scientists have advised their governments that mass vaccination of younger people is not required. Yet if any American scientist had argued for that position during the peak COVID panic, he would surely have been labelled a “vaccine crank” and “anti-science” for his position.

Second, it’s ironic that the author of the article is so concerned about giving a platform to misinformation, when his own presentation contains misinformation, for example:

"Cynical as this is, it is remarkably effective at crafting a public aura of doubt over science, the same practices adopted by fossil fuel companies today about climate change.

“For proponents of unevidenced positions, debate is a device for converting nonsense into audience. The oxymoronic “intelligent design” movement, a repackaging of creationism, attempted to position biblical literalism as equivalent to the copiously evidenced theory of evolution, insisting schools “teach the controversy.””

The author doesn’t directly say, but certainly (in the culture-war context we live in) is likely to leave most readers with the impression, that the only source of doubt regarding some of the more extreme claims regarding AGW is the activity of fossil fuel companies. This of course is not true, as there are scientists – even scientists who have received copious awards and recognition from the scientific community – who doubt certain claims regarding AGW but do not receive financial support from fossil fuel companies. So the author is presenting misinformation by intimation.

In stating without any qualifications that intelligent design is a “repackaging of creationism,” the author again withholds information from his readers, including the information that some ID proponents are not creationists (as even John Harshman here has granted), and the fact that neither “biblical literalism” nor being “against evolution” is essential to ID as a general position.

The author easily could have stated that many anti-AGW people and many ID people are “cranks,” without saying or suggesting that all of the people in those groups were “cranks.”

In statements like these, the author is behaving like the “cranks” he condemns – making utterances based on inadequate research about his subject-matter.

No, I am not going to reply to remarks discussing ID per se or AGW per se. My point is directed only to the remarks made about debating science. The use of the word “cranks” poisons the well; it doesn’t follow from the fact that it is a waste of time debating true “cranks” over scientific matters, that there could never be a case a where a moderated, intelligent debate between qualified scientists who speak to each other respectfully would have public educational value.

As for “staged debates”, that is a red herring, because not all debates have to be staged. There are other formats, e.g., the New York Times might give Scientist A a full page to set forth his dissent from the majority position, and then, a few days later, Scientist B a full page to set forth his defense of the majority position, and then, a few days later, Scientist A a half-page for rebuttal, and a few days later, Scientist B a half-page for rebuttal, with a section allowing reader discussion to follow. The spaces between the articles would give the scientists time to review the evidence and argument adduced, and would have a “cooling off” effect that is usually missing in live, staged, debates. It would also give readers time to review and reflect in between installments, which would have a healthy effect.

Debate has been occurring in science and in all other areas for centuries. It will never cease to be a feature of interaction among scientists. Some formats for debate are obviously defective, as was the case in the Tour-Farina debate. It doesn’t follow that debate as such is never a good thing.

It’s also essential, in a free and open society (and some of us here are committed to a free and open society, even if others prefer a more centralized, elitist model of how things should be run), that the public understands how and why decisions affecting them are made, and since science is increasingly a part of modern life and factors into all kinds of social, economic and other debates, it’s essential that the public be educated in how scientists think and why they come to the conclusions that they do. If they never see two scientists in disagreement, and working out that disagreement in a rational and civil way, if they are instead presented only with an “official” government line of what “science” has declared, and are prevented from hearing what some qualified scientists have to say that differs from that official line, they cannot be responsible citizens and voters in a democracy, since they are being propagandized rather than informed.

Yes, a good portion of what constitutes “debate” is not very useful, but it hardly follows that debate – in appropriate forms – is never useful. Indeed, at any scientific conference where a scientist presents some work, and his or her peers stand up and challenge some of the scientist’s claims, and the scientist responds to defend them, a debate is at that very moment taking place, and I doubt very much that Mercer or anyone else would say that such exchanges should be forbidden at scientific meetings. And there are times, where the results of science impinge in major ways on public life, that it is necessary for the public to understand the differing positions taken by scientists, so that they can, as democratic citizens, understand the potential risks and potential benefits of alternative policies based on alternative interpretations of the scientific data. Anyone who wants to make sure that citizens don’t hear about alternative interpretations (again, interpretations offered by qualified, responsible, published scientists), and instead hear only one authorized interpretation, is no friend of a free and democratic society.

Eddie goes on at great length, but the chief message I get is that he’s an example of kook magnetism. ID, AGW denialism, anti-vax, and who knows what else.

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Why should the author misinform his readers by suggesting that there are any anti-AGW and pro-ID people who are not cranks? Other than to appease you and your fellow right wing culture-warriors, that is.

Anyway, in the interest of clarity, do you consider RFK Jr. not to be an anti-vaccine crank?

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