The "fine tuning" argument: A "meta" look

I am very familiar with that paper. More so than you might think ;p

First off, as that paper mentioned, you can form a large amount of high density regions by invoking hitherto unconstrained non-Gaussianities.

Second, just because I can tweak the length of the habitable CMB epoch does not mean that it has to start earlier, it can merely last longer.

Third,

I realize now that you mean clouds “condensing” as in cosmological clouds collapsing, not water clouds condensing on the atmosphere of Earth. While as I mentioned before, I have never studied the second, the first I have studied to extremely great detail. Note that these clouds do not ‘condense’ but collapse. If you mean cosmological ‘clouds’ collapsing, then yes, ‘clouds would condense’.

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Luke’s book on the subject is worth reading

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How does it deal with the two major problems I’ve mentioned? How does he decide what the possible range of alternative values is? How does he determine that other hypothetical universes are inimical to life?

In his CV, which contains information about 33 peer reviewed publications (12 first author) between 2005 and 2019, including papers published in journals such as the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.

From the paper that I linked to you:

… what if the range is infinite? Assigning a constant, normalized probability measure over an infinite range is impossible: there is no probability distribution p such that a) p ( x ) is constant, and b) ∫∞0p(x) dx=1∫0∞p(x) dx=1. So, how should we test a theory in such circumstances? … A physical theory, to be testable, must be sufficiently well-defined as to allow probabilities of data (likelihoods) to be calculated, at least in principle. Otherwise, the theory cannot tell us what data we should expect to observe, and so cannot connect with the physical universe. If the theory contains free parameters, then since the prior probability distribution of the free parameter is a necessary ingredient in calculating the likelihood of the data, the theory must justify a prior. In summary, a theory whose likelihoods are rendered undefined by untamed infinities simply fails to be testable. In essence, it fails to be a physical theory at all. … How, then, do current theories of physics avoid problematic infinities? … Is there anything in the relevant physical theories that limits their range of possible values?

Yes — the Planck scale. … The Planck mass represents an upper boundary to any single-particle mass scale in our current theories. A lower boundary is provided by zero, since quantum field theory breaks down for negative masses; even if it didn’t, a lower bound would be given by − m Planck. Thus, the theory itself constricts the value of v to the range [0, m Planck), and ρ Λ to the range [0,m4Planck) (Wilson 1979; Weinberg 1989; Dine 2015). Outside of these ranges, our current theories cannot be trusted.

In short, there are normalization problems for a physical theory with free parameters that both vary over an infinite range and are uniformly distributed. The standard models of particle physics and cosmology avoid these problems as follows. Dimensional parameters do not vary over an infinite range; they are bounded by the Planck scale. Dimensionless parameters might not vary over an infinite range, and common practice in the physical sciences assumes that parameters of order unity are more probable, so a uniform probability distribution is not forced upon us by the principle of indifference.

If you want more, you should read the paper. The section ‘Response to critics’ deals very much with the objections you’ve raised about setting probability distributions.

The author explicitly states that these “concerns are perfectly legitimate, but are not specifically a problem with fine-tuning”, but a problem that concerns how any “physical theory, scuppered by infinities, fails to produce likelihoods of data — any data.”

Only one of which is about fine-tuning.

Just because it’s a problem for other theories too doesn’t mean it isn’t a problem for fine-tuning. And because we can restrict some parameter to being between two values doesn’t mean we have reason to allow it to vary through that entire range. If I tell you my weight is between zero and twenty million pounds, that doesn’t tell you that it’s a reasonable range to consider.

Yes, one that has it in the title.

:upside_down_face:

I suggest reading some of the resources you’ve been provided.

Here’s how Barnes describes his research:

I am a theoretical astrophysicist and cosmologist with a broad range of interests. I have modelled galaxy formation in a cosmological context with supercomputer simulations. I have connected those simulations to observations with modeling of radiative transfer (particularly Lyman alpha emission and absorption) and realistic models of IFU observations. I have investigated the fine-tuning of the universe for intelligent life, modelling the effect of the cosmological constant on galaxy formation and the effect of alternative nuclear physics on stars. I have contributed to the philosophy of science by considering the challenges of testing multiverse theories using probability theory.

In other words, his scientific publications that are relevant to fine-tuning may not necessarily have the words “fine-tuning” in them.

Anyway, what is the point of interrogating Barnes’ CV?

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This is basically a version of Dawkins’ infamous “Who designed the designer” argument, which even many atheist philosophers agree is a very weak argument. With this method of thinking, many explanations in science wouldn’t work.

John Couch Adams, 1843: “Hm, this weird orbital data of Uranus would make sense if there were an undiscovered 8th planet with mass X and orbital period Y perturbing it.”
Skeptic: “Unfortunately, you are now picking out a particular planet from the space of all possible planets, with the exact and unlikely attribute of having mass X and orbital period Y. The prior probability of this planet is at least as unlikely as the problem that you are trying to solve. It is just as likely that chance accounts for these odd perturbations.”

Astronaut on an unnamed planet in the Alpha Centauri system, 2403 AD: “Wow, look at all these blue iron tractor-like objects on this planet! This is surely evidence that there is an alien civilization that came here first.”
Skeptic: “Unfortunately, you are now picking out a picking out a particular type of organism from the space of all possible living beings, with the exact and unlikely attribute of wanting to build this particular set of tractors with the color blue and the material of iron. The prior probability of such beings are at least unlikely as the problem that you are trying to solve. It is just as likely that chance accounts for these tractor-like objects.”

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This is an implicit claim that some of his other refereed journal articles, despite their titles, are about fine-tuning. Is that correct?

The contention is that fine-tuning is a prominent subject of research for cosmologists and physicists. I doubted that this is true, and @ThomasTrebilco was trying to provide evidence.

Where did @ThomasTrebilco or anyone else make such a claim? He only said:

That various experts can agree with statement X does not mean that X is a prominent subject of research. In addition, Thomas only claimed that certain facts about fine-tuning are not in question.

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I will look for it. It may be in the previous thread. Or I may have misunderstood. So far I can’t find anything.

I don’t know whether that’s true or not.

My intentions in the quote above were simply to point out that what cosmologists mean when they refer to fine-tuning is different to what many others (including many philosophers and theologians) might think at face value, but that this doesn’t mean the concept can’t be used in arguments about the probability of theism (or a multiverse for that matter).

This is why I affirmed the question that you asked:

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Curious: why “intelligent”? How would fine-tuning for intelligent life be distinguishable from fine-tuning for life, period?

Is it true that certain facts are not in question? What would those facts be?

My understanding is:

  1. That probabilities can be calculated for particular values of the cosmological constants
  2. That the probabilities of a universe that is life permitting is phenomenally small*
  • The probability distributions from 1 are used in making calculations about a multiverse, such that 2 is true of both the multiverse hypothesis and a single-universe theory.

There is some reasonable disagreement about 2 it looks like, such with @PdotdQ and the authors of the paper I linked in response to some of his comments.

It certainly seems though, that all of the noise is happening among people who agree with 2, including among figures such as (IIRC) Sean Carroll, Lawrence Krauss, Roger Penrose, Geraint Lewis, Alexander Vilenkin (all atheists/non-theists of some sort) and theists such as Luke Barnes, Robin Collins and Hugh Ross - all of which seem to have relevant physics background.

This is a good question. I suspect it has something to do with the anthropic principle, but I’m not too sure at this point.

Not necessarily. My point is that we know different fundamental constants can produce Universes that are much more life-permitting than our Universe. Hence, my claim that our Universe is hostile towards life. The probability for a life permitting Universe can still be small or even phenomenally small. The two statements can both be true.

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Interesting - could you elaborate on this a bit more, or point to anywhere which discusses this further?

Here’s one example:

The background light within a galaxy can be tuned via changing fundamental constants so that there is a large area where it is as bright as the day sky on Earth. In this case, every single planet, no matter their host star (or even if there is a host star) in said area will be habitable.

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That’s my understanding. And my position is that those who try use it as an argument for God are wrong. Not that fine-tuning is not real.

Then so is the objection to the suggestion that there could be deeper physical laws, or a multiverse, to explain the values of the physical constants and the initial conditions of the universe.

When apologists respond to these alternatives by saying they are just pushing the problem back and that you need a fine-tuned explanation to account for fine-tuning, they are giving what “philosophers agree is a very weak argument”.

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Perhaps, but the objections to the fine tuning argument have nothing to do with the flaw of your WDTD response. Note that your response would also undermine any sort of deeper mechanism to explain the fine-tunedness of the fundamental constants. In fact, your response would invalidate the very notion of explanation.

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