The Inevitability of Improbability

Here are 29+ examples of tests and potential falsifications for the theory of evolution:


The odds of John Smith winning the lottery are 1 in 100 million before the drawing. If John Smith wins, then the odds of John Smith winning are 1 in 1. That’s the difference.

While we applaud Ewert’s attempt to address the data, his model still falls well short, even according to Ewert himself. You can find a discussion here:


Probability of throwing a 6 with one dice is 1/6, after first throwing you get 6, so now probability is no more 1/6 but 1?

Yes. Once an event occurs the probability of that event occurring is 1, because it happened.

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i see lack of mathematicians in this website

The odds of John Smith having won the lottery are not 1 in 100 million before the drawing. The probability is 0.0. Since the probabilty of him having won the lottery before the drawing is 0.0 he cannot possibly win the lottery.

So do I.

For example, you gave me a universal upper bound that I cracked with 3 decks of cards. That’s not very good math.

Could you explain this?

If you toss a coin but don’t yet know the outcome which event is it that has a probability of 1? The coin has already been tossed. The outcome is certain. To which event will you assign the probability “1”?

Please stop changing the analogy. Address the one that has already been given.

“We could also use the lottery to help illustrate the inevitability of improbability. In our example, the chances of winning the lottery is 1 in 100 million. There are exactly 100 million tickets sold in each drawing, and every drawing has a single winner.”

What are the odds that John Smith will win PRIOR TO THE DRAWING???

There are two possibilities, not 100 million possibilities. John Smith has either won the lottery or John Smith has not won the lottery. The probability that John Smith has won a lottery that has not taken place is 0.

There are 100 million possibilities: the 100 million ticket holders.

You seem to be trying really hard to avoid the obvious.

What are the odds that John Smith will win after the drawing has taken place?


Didn’t you read the post?

That depends on whether you are asking about the probability for future tosses, or the probability for the toss that was just done (and came up 6).

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does not matter, the probability is the same before and after, the fact it came up is because of chance 1/6, not 1, the fact we say there is 1/6 of time chance it will be 6, so, 1/6 chance is realized, it does not automatically become 1,

In ordinary casual probability talk, it does indeed matter.

If we want to be precise, then it depends on precise specifications of the mathematical model. That’s why a clearly specified model is needed when doing statistical analysis.

I did. What I don’t understand is how people can understand an example with odds of 1 in 100 million but cannot understand an example where the odds are 1 in 2.

What are the odds of an event that has already happened for which the outcome is unknown? According to your posts, the odds are 1:1. The event is past, the probability is 1, even when the outcome is not known. So what are the odds that John won the lottery once the lottery is over if you don’t know yet that John was the winner?

There’s that bad math again. It does automatically become 1 when it happens.