@swamidass,
Dr. Behe said, during a video interview, that nobody would find a novel structure in the natural word showing showing intelligent design. What, then, was he proposing?
To avoid having to type everything he said, i will paraphrase my understanding of what he meant: …setting aside the especially miraculous, neither Christian nor scientist would or could see a difference in origins (assuming there was a way to see the origins) for the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. His hypothetical model applies nothing but natural outcomes from natural laws.
Dr Behe, then is not dealing in episodes of design… but in one long, interlocking sequence, an extended plan of natural events if you will, consciously fit together by Supreme Being of the universe, and set in motion at the moment of creation.
So then, what is different in Behe’s view that sets ICD apart from everything else?
It comes down to the issue of probabilities, and pretty much ONLY probabilities!
He would say, i believe, that the anatomies of certain kinds of eyeballs are impossible to appear in the absence of God… but he might say the probabilities - - for the same conditions and time trame - - vary greatly depending on the design: varying from extremely likely to virtually impossible.
Extending these parameters to the notorious case of the flagellum… Dr. Behe would not argue that the emergence of a flagellum in a godless universe is not impossible; he would argue that it is virtually impossible!
For a more obscure example, he might argue that the appearance of the factor that allows cellular life to exist in high-oxygen marine environments (hypothesized for the start of the Cambrian Explosion) is a naturally possible event that might have been delayed, in a godless universe, by another billion years (or two!).
However, in a God-guided universe, it was able to happen when God NEEDED it to happen.
This distinction, then, is at the heart of how Dr Behe differentiates between ICD vs. the rest!
If God exists and God accesses all things and places… how do I.D. proponents think they can compare the probabilities of “Event A” happening WITH GOD … vs. “Event A”! In a cosmos WITHOUT god?
How do we set up a field or lab study where we can know we have a dataset obtained WITH GOD vs. a dataset obtained WITHOUT GOD?!?!
This is a metaphysical conundrum of the highest order… not a scientific one.